U.S. Automotive Industry: Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night

Should GM - with 100 years of history - go defunct?

It would be difficult for me to be unbiased about the fate and nature of the U.S. Automotive Industry. My first job was as an Industrial Engineer for Lear Corp., a tier 1 supplier of a wide array of parts to the Big 3 and all other automotive makers. Shortly, after accepting and doing the job of revamping a facility layout, I had the opportunity to interview for a GM job in Bay City, Michigan at their powertrain plant. I was offered a position that I did not take. I also interviewed with Toyota out of Erlanger, Kentucky for an energy development position in 1996, but never had a real shot the job.

So though I didn’t always appreciate the opportunites and circumstances that led to me being considered for such jobs, I did realize the importance of the automotive industry. Which is why I write.

In a report prepared back in March 2006, the U.S. Dept of Commerce painted a bleak picture of the industry. The conclusion was:

Employment in the U.S. automotive industry is only slightly healthier than that of most other
domestic industries. BLS data show that total manufacturing employment, less the auto sector,
declined by 21% between 1990 and 2005, and by 18% since 2000. The auto industry gained 4%
between 1990 and 2005, but fell 16% after 2000. Industry employment is headed downward and is not likely to recover for several years, if ever. Some declines are undoubtedly the result of improved worker efficiency and productivity, but most losses are the product of the declining fortunes of America’s two largest motor vehicle producers and the supplier base that relies on them for business. Foreign-affiliated automotive companies have invested billions of dollars in new production facilities in the United States and have announced plans for more factories to come. However, the new jobs they create have, and will provide only partial relief for the severe impact that the entire U.S. automotive workforce is absorbing. In fact, in the next 6 years, GM and Ford will lay off nearly as many workers as all the foreign affiliates have hired so far.

Not a happy thought from the U.S. Commerce Dept.

However, what is stated, in another auto industry report, is that foreign investment continues to be part of the very reason non-Big Three are getting more and more of a market share of the U.S. auto industry.

With increased competition, the combined market share of the Detroit 3 (GM, Ford and
Chrysler) continued to fall, decreasing from 71.3 percent in 1997 to 50.9 percent in 2007. The loss of North American profitability and the need to control legacy costs led GM and Ford to announce massive restructuring plans in late 2005 and during 2006. After being sold by Daimler, Chrysler also announced restructuring plans in February 2007.

Meanwhile, foreign competitors continue to invest in U.S. auto assembly plants and their individual, as well as cumulative U.S. market share continues to grow. Japanese brands had a 37.2 percent market share, and German brands had 5.9 percent in 2007. The Korean manufacturers, in particular, continue to make inroads in the U.S. marketplace with their market share growing from 2 percent in 2000 to 4.8 percent in 2007.

Why is it that only foreigners can invest? Because of “legacy” costs, namely health care and pension benefits? Because of locating to low-tax areas, particularly the South where they (the workers) can be non-union and lower paid? All of the above.

One of the cruxes of the automotive industry is the support of health care plans. Health care costs would be better served under a National Health Care System, thus eliminating a hamstringing problem of current operation expenses of these automotive legends. Even with that said, the UAW and the Big Three did restructure to reduce cost by $1000 per vehicle just this past year. (Page 5, Trade.gov Report )

But this wasn’t good enough, or quick enough, to come through the mortgage crisis malaise which could very well end 100 years of business for GM.  GM has cash problems that are only getting worse through the daily operation of their business. Their ‘burn rate’ has them in the precarious position of bankruptcy without some loan from the government. (Likely bankruptcy by January 2009, if analysts are spot on.)

Should GM, Chrysler and Ford suffer (or the 1,000,000 direct employees) for what started as mortgage/Wall Street SNAFU-to- a Great Depression event?  No.

When we look at the neglectful behavior of the Bush administration – including their brain trust in Treasury and the Fed – the automotive industry, with all their flaws and warts and recently poor models in concert with $4.00/gal gas, seems to be a more victim than victimizer.

I know, “they’ve been in bed with BIG OIL!!!” True. Their usage of the Oil lobby to get their gas-guzzling vehicles on the market is a big reason why ANY loan or bailing out of the BIG THREE will require a major overhaul to their business model.

We do need revamp. Total, complete and without GM, Ford or Chrysler’s hemhawing about it. Either do it, or die. Because of international trade agreements, which we are being threaten by other countries about (see article) it seems the auto industry could go belly up anyways. (Though I, personally, would forcefully tell the EU that they owe us for their entire continent (WWII) and therefore, better accept that we are looking out for our self-interests as well as theirs. Having the U.S. in a Depression isn’t going to help Europe either. GM made the tanks that saved your bread from a far, far worse fate.)

A Classic Studebaker (1950-51 era)

I also think back to how Michigan suffered during the late 1970s-1984 through the worst of that recession. Unemployment was at least 15% total, and 25-30% amongst African Americans. While Reagan talked about keeping America great, the Japanese got their 1st real foothold in the North American automotive circuit through being able to relocate to America soil. While I am not a protectionist, we made deals that seemed very nice to a country we could not get fair trade in return.

Recently, on PBS, Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina made the crass comment about the BIG THREE:

JUDY WOODRUFF: Gov. Sanford, the same question about the auto industry.

GOV. MARK SANFORD: My view is let them go. I don’t know where this ends. I don’t know how your cell phone charges, Judy — I don’t know if you have to worry about them in a personal sense — but at some point, it gets to the absurd of now we’ve got to start bailing out folks on their cell phone bills.

I mean, once that slippery slope begins, it becomes a problem in this way. The heart of the capitalistic system that has created the wealth that we enjoy in America is based on success and failure and there being a consequence to making bad decisions.

 

And if you go through the business of bailing these folks out so that — you know, through Chapter 11, they can’t then renegotiate union contracts, which were at times very generous in the way that they were created, if you can’t go through that process of creative destruction — as Adam Smith called it — then you go to the heart of undermining that which has created the wealth that we enjoy as Americans.

I would make this point, as well. If we had had a series of bailouts, there wouldn’t be a Nucor Steel that’s based in the South that’s done awfully well because we would have bailed out steel in Pittsburgh. There wouldn’t be a BMW in South Carolina or a whole host of other auto industries scattered across the South because we would have just kept them all in Detroit.

Amazing insight Governor. If you were a governor of Michigan, what would you say???

But you’ll currently notice Jennifer Granholm, Michigan’s governor, is in the background of Barack’s economic advisers. Meaning there is hope for the auto industry…

The entire Midwest needs retooling. Green Jobs, effective use of resources, education of a new generation of workers, not just in automotive plants and parts assembly, but energy construction would do the breadbasket a world of good.

The automotive industry should not go gentle into that good night, but rage against the idea that they are expendable. When the United States thinks that eliminating manufacturing and technology in favor of investment banking and mortgage dealings is a better avenue to profits and sound economics, we as a nation have lost the economic war waging on this Earth. The ability to produce things that people want, to creat technology through manufacturing is what keeps us healthy. Managing money is fine, but wealth creation is only as good as the material it backs. Tangible assets come from tangible production of goods and ideas. Pushing paper around the world can be done by anyone…

Rage BIG THREE. IT IS THAT DIRE.

Getting the foreclosure slip: Always nice to let the insane have their way

On August 26th, my family received 1st notice of foreclosure from JPMorganChase. (Actually Chase Finance, LLC.) I had to find out about this 3 days later upon a look-what-we-got-here, open mail search. I was angry, but didn’t get mad. I knew, for once, this wasn’t worth the showdown.

So, I talked to my mother. I said, “we need to go to the bank on Tuesday morning as soon as it opens.” She said, “yes. That makes sense.” I avoided talking to my aunt. She’s crazy. Right now, instead of getting ready to talk to people that may/may not help us keep our home, which is 3 months past due and $1,500 behind on (not a lot, I know, but then again we don’t have even that right now), they are cleaning under a fridge that haven’t moved in a long, long time.

This is my reality people. While cleaning is ‘important’, it is not crucial or critical at this particular time. Like I said in my prior post, bankruptcy is a long overdue option. (They called Peter Francis Geraci. The guy counseled them for 5 minutes and rejected our case due to the home equity (it’s too much) we allegedly have. They are set to meet another lawyer on Sept. 8th. I can only imagine that meeting.)

A bankruptcy filing could stay the foreclosure. We have only 23 days until it becomes essentially too late, as the bank will accelerate the loan. And we will be evicted eventually. ( I checked out a bankruptcy proceedings book for them to read - published this year – but as of yet, I am the only one that’s even read the first 20 pages…It shows who is concerned, and who is not.) 

So what can I do?

1) Contact a lawyer about a competency hearing for my aunt. She is irrational and taking the wrong viewpoint on this whole thing. She was responsible, I used that loosely, for the mortgage payment. She flaked, and told me only in the last 2 weeks we are behind and she owes $30,000 in credit cards. She makes $24,000 tops at her job. But after that argument, she seemed (as she always does) willing to change and do what is necessary. But she ignored paying the bank – right after getting paid – and now, she is avoiding the issue.

She has lied always. Doesn’t matter the reason or importance, she does it. To your face, or behind your back, it is as natural as eating or sleeping to her. But this time, she has put us all in jeopardy.

2) Make arrangements for moving out to another place. Problem is: neither my mother nor I can get a place likely with our credit shortcomings. And guess who can? My aunt because she is committing fraud on those credit cards most likely…which explains her misgivings or dragging her feet on the bankruptcy option. She is now playing a blame game, woe-is-me, why-do-I-gotta-do-that? song. And it is getting old, quick.

I don’t want to live with her period. Frankly, I’d rather her strike out on her own. Let her do that for the 1st time in her life – she’s 57 and has never had an apartment or single place on her own, without help.

I have had 6-7 places minimum, but my last one resulted in a hasty exit, and I owe on it. (But can’t pay them or anyone else for that matter…)

3) Move essential items to a friend’s place or U-lock. Live out of my car until I can save enough to put down rent money in cash. Problem: I have to take from mother’s check to do that. She receives the monies off my route, I don’t. So, money is being used to control me. Without it, I can’t do the route. I also can’t do anything to move forward because my mother is so bad off – 3 judgments against her and always broke from paying bills, food, etc. – while her sis is pissing money away or taking care of her bills alone.

So that’s chapter 1 of the Chapter 7 filing.

I have no idea what is next in store for me. (But I have some guesses…)

A House Divided: Living on the Edge of Insanity

Most people, at some point in their lives, have a period of hardship, whether it is financial, emotional or physical in nature. Well, that time has come and festered for way too long.

Over the last 4 years, I have watched my mother and aunt run their finances, and tangentially, mine into the ground. They are out of options aside from bankruptcy. (I have suggested it for the last 3 years.)

Yet, as I have pleaded, reasoned, implored, chided and, as of last week, threatened and exploded on them, nothing has moved them to an immediate action of legal counsel.

Last week, a car dilemma meant that I would be driving unsafe, possibly endangering the welfare of others. It moved them only to go further into debt, and “rob Peter to pay Paul.” We fixed it – after my mother and I got rejected 4 places for auto financing – and thus threw good money after bad. (She bought it for $500…a poor investment.)

They are two months behind on their mortgage/home equity payment of $530/month. The next one is due this Monday.

My aunt, by her own admission, is $30,000 in credit card debt on 2 cards. Her installment is $600/month. She makes approximately $2000/mo gross, minus $500 for gas to do their paper route, leaving very little to handle every day expenses such as food. (She has never made more than $27,000 in any year.)

My mother has 2 civil judgments all ready against her with one filed for September 2008. She just spent her bi-weekly check of $800, earned by me, on that $500 car. She did not receive her stimulus check due to a garnishment. She has no savings. No tangible assets aside from a shared interest in a home worth less than it would take to fix it properly.

The Home would assess at $90,000, however, the land is 50% of that value. The bathroom lacks a tub that works due to plumbing work that is too expensive to consider. There is no hot water due again to a water heater issue. (So, we boil what we need.) The kitchen tile is duct-taped to the floor.

We have 18 cats, with probably 3 more on the way, costing $10/per day for food, litter and flea protection, which, by they way, has not worked. No cable. No long distance telephone service. 2 beat up vehicles sit – one with a transmission problem, the other, a suspension flaw – while we drive 2 touch-n-go autos.

We have a broken washer and dryer. I haven’t bought an entire outfit at retail price since I’ve been home (April 2004.) I sleep on a futon in a reminiscent 8’ x 10’ room crowded with books, a bookshelf, 2 desks, a computer, TV set and various other furniture pieces. I junk a lot: picking up furniture, TV sets (better than ours) and even a computer that I write most things now on. Yet this is only a coping mechanism to find value in a valueless home.

The room across from me is filled halfway up the walls with old arts and crafts of my aunt. The whole room. The basement is a disaster. Ditto for the falling apart garage. The front porch is sinking and pulling away from the main house. And the house is again overrun with cats. Estimated work: $50,000.

If you want insanity, come by 505 Indiana Avenue sometime.  

Why I stress, and use either “flight or fight” tactics, that of wanting to run away to go fight the Taliban or the Terrorists, is this: I am exasperated.

They will not change.

My aunt is crazy. Pure and simple. She has a diagnosable mental disorder. Not for me to diagnose it, it is just there. And also, I likely know why it started: she was molested by her uncle some 40 years ago.

So that is a significant reason why she manipulates, connives, vacillates, lies and deceives anyone she can. She also blows everything out of proportion. She lives in victimhood and is dependent on her sister. She is a drama queen.

(And I did something I’ll likely be punished for: I slap her on Wednesday during a complete meltdown by me. The first time in 25 years I have ever hit her. She was sarcastic and childishly criticizing my attempts to somehow avoid losing our income on the route I drive. While crying about her having to do HER route, all by herself…)

My mother, she’s an enabler. She decided long ago to cast her lot in with sis, and I am not a strong enough influence to change her behavior. I have lost faith in her by the truckload.

For my part, I am success always looking for a failure. Go to school, but flunked out. Get a degree and job, but it goes south in a year. File bankruptcy and get credit and a better job, eventually wind up stalking an older woman. (5 years older.) I get out of prison, get 2 jobs in fast food, but the stress of running around 80 hours a week is too much. Ruin my credit, and have no available options left. Write a crappy book, and expect people to read it. It goes on like that forever…and ever.

I am petulant, too talkative, undermine my own points and feel I am bipolar. No one has ever cared a lick about what I say, what I do or what I desire for a life. I also suppose that my mother has never really ever loved me. (She twice abandoned me: once at age 2-3, the other time in escape of my father, age 10.Since then, she does just enough to reflect she cares.)

My father is a complete monster. I am a half-monster, genetically. These are the House of Usher type of horrors I live.

But all that said, I have wanted them to straighten out their lives. I went to Peter Francis Geraci’s legal site, printed out forms, explanations to no avail in getting them to immediately consider it. Instead, they are spending money on cats and food for us right now.

I am considering consulting an attorney to go forward with mental competency hearing due to the items above. (And will start taking pictures, notes, etc.) This is my fight mechanism kicking in. I will admit to my hitting of my aunt. (And likely go to jail…again.) But she’ll just use a ‘blame game’ instead of addressing the problem: finances are destroyed and they have to file or lose home and income. And most legal people will fall for it, I suppose.

I don’t want them to lose their home.

I don’t want them to lose their entire life.

I don’t want them to continue this insanity.

I live in a house divided. I just wonder whether I am the sane or insane one.

You be the judge.

(And yes, I know I am not the appropriate messenger. They have made that clear. But if you are in the midst of the perfect storm of woe, would you stand by and let someone flush you down the toilet?)

Signs you need to file bankruptcy: from Peter Francis Geraci book on it.

WHEN YOU SHOULD CONSIDER CHAPTER 7 OR CHAPTER 13 PLANS

***If three or more of the following apply to you, you should see a bankruptcy lawyer now.  ***If more than 5 of the following apply to you, you should have already seen us 3 months ago!!! __x___ My debt is over $5000 not including a car or house.  __x___ My payments are over 25% of my take home pay.  __x___I am frequently late on my payments.  __x___I pay 20% interest on my debt.  __x___I buy necessary items like food or clothing on credit.  __x___I frequently get cash advances.  __x___I am thinking about getting a loan to pay other loans.  __x___Someone has filed a lawsuit against me.  __x___Collection agencies are calling me.  __x___I am “robbing Peter to pay Paul.”  __x___My balances are not going down even though I make payments.  __x___I have been turned down for more credit.  __x___Payments are more than 1 month behind on more than one bill.  _____My driver’s license is suspended because of an accident.  _____I can’t afford car insurance.  __x___My mortgage or rent is always late, or is behind.  _____We are getting divorced and have too many bills to pay.  _____I have medical bills over $5000 that are not insured.  __x___There is a garnishment or wage assignment on my check.  __x___I owe income taxes I can’t pay now.  __x___My car is worth much less than I owe.                     __x___I have no savings.

Of these, 18 apply to my family’s current dilemma.

The X-Y Files: I Want to Believe…in Something

About 10 years ago, nearly to the week, the 1^st X-files (Fight the Future) movie was in the theatres. It was around that time I was in the midst of my short Naval hitch, learning (I suppose) how to be a U.S. Sailor/electrician. That experience didn’t take.

 

Going back through the files of one’s life, you stumble upon various words, thoughts that in retrospect may or may not represent you correctly. Here are my X-files:

 

I joined up in early March 1998, delayed by a terrible ice storm that cut power for 3 days. The timing of the jump to the NAV wasn’t planned in advance. In December 1997, my destiny had reached a crossroads: bankrupt, car repossession, no IE job and living with mom and aunt.   So, I jumped onto the Navy ship. I had a college education but I entered as an enlisted person, with a long shot hope at becoming an officer. (I took the OAR, did well, but the cards didn’t play.)During and after boot camp, I had a relationship with woman, that for the brief time we had, I really cared a great deal about.

Here’s an actual journal snippet:

 

Yeah, she had an affect on me. Calling her, “Sweet, honest, adorable, funny, great attitude, loving, caring…” isn’t par for my course. (Usually involves sexual appeal. I even mentioned Marriage. My God…)

 

It’s doubtful I did much for her. She went to Pensacola, FL to become a rescue swimmer. After calls for about 3-4 weeks after basic, a few letters back and forth, we came to an impasse over a visit to Florida over the 4^th of July. The cost and lack of accumulated leave left her thinking I did not care. No matter how I tried to explain it, I failed. Maybe for good reasons. (And for her benefit.)

I had another opportunity “to date” another Navy girl, and she actually went to The X-files movie with me, as friends, but I never really forgot Dana. As a result, I never gave Danielle, Navy woman #2, much of chance. (As it turns out, those were the last two stable relationships I had.)   My days in the Navy turned more and more to alcohol and alone time. Asshole comes to mind too. But that’s for a future post.

The Navy soured before my eyes. The January night in 1999 I landed at Damneck, VA the fortunes of the Naval service went south faster than an F-14D Tomcat. The barracks were a disaster; three of us got stuck in the restricted barracks, for the people not too happy to be in the Navy. (Of which I was to become one, by irony or fate.)

The Nav's favorite fighter during my life

 

But I ignored that best I could. The Navy Way was to me organization still. Not there. I didn’t have a duty section; nor a senior enlisted man to report to; nor much in the way of a timeline as to what was to become of furthering my naval training. (My OCS request/paperwork was lost. Start at square one.) I gained 10 lbs., lost an “automatic promotion” due to that weight gain (I was near the maximum for my height all ready) and got depressed. Alcohol led to suicide attempt. That’s it for that chapter.

 

With some effort, I rebounded to my most fortunate period of life. I got out, hunted for an IE position, got into warehousing, liked that for a while, started making ‘real money’, enjoyed spending it on clothes and items that make a home, a home, etc. But still I was alone.   I never filled that void in my heart. It’s there to this day. Oh, you make acquaintances or laughter with a work buddy or two, but it’s not happy living. But my failures recently came through the attempt to fill that void.

 

Quixotic generally means “romantic or impractical ideas.” And that often has been the nature of my goals or dreams.  Too long ago, I got it in my head that I could somehow be more that just an average Joe. Schlepping to work 8-5, paying bills, buying goods and services, and saving enough for that cloth coat Nixon used to sell America on his heritage. But that’s the trick.   But I wanted also the pretty girl, the nice car and the hip home. And prestige. Maybe too much The American Dream or just not The Nightmare my family typically lived.

Anyways, I made the mistake of trusting someone too much. (A fatal character flaw of mine.) When rejected, it got more than just messy. It resulted in 27 months in the Westville Hilton. Since 2003, I feel regression in my spirit and my belief in anything or anyone. 5 years has only reinforced much of the undermining spirit that existed even before that time.

 

I have stalled in developing a sense of self. Sure, I know what has been done, the experiences I don’t want to repeat and the things that I hope matter most, but it is empty now. Trust is lost in many things. Justice, second chances, goodness in people (in myself), etc.   Inherently, useless is the term for what my life is. As I near 36, I suspect I have 35-40 years left, given current life expectancy. But what am I going to do with them? And what will I accomplish (if anything) during those 4 decades? Who cares? (Too often I don’t.)

There is always a certain temptation towards jealousy. Happy enough others are getting ahead, but realizing you ain’t one of them. I had my youth, hit my zenith and pursued my wishes. Time for others, and I just didn’t get where they will.   Love has always escaped me. My parents both lacked the propensity to love others. My mother tried very hard – succeeded in some respects – but she, in actuality, watched out for her interests more than I gave her credit for. My father is an abomination.

 

A kindred spirit is lacking. Not a pessimistic, woe-is-me, everything-sucks type that is writing this mundane post.   But the one that gets what I am about, can put up with the Bi-polar, Goals-oriented, home-life seeking, semi-idiotic X-File type I am, while trying to find a new career while accepting disappointment and fighting depression.   It’s just 10 years…and I want to believe in something…again.

I hope to see a good flick on Friday…The X-Files: I Want to Believe.