Patience, Grasshopper: The Fukudome Effect on the Chicago Cubs

As the Cubs swept the Arizona Diamondbacks (ah, sweet revenge), and took care of the Padres last night (12-3), one can begin to see the ‘Fukudome effect’ on the philosophy at the plate of the Cubs. This 2008 team has made a healthy living on the bases on ball (2nd in MLB at 183 in 38 games), taking many more pitches per at bat than they ever did in Dusty Baker era.

 

Cubs Offense	Runs	Rk	OBP	Rk	SLG	Rk
2002	706	22	0.321	22	0.413	17
2003	724	20	0.323	23	0.416	19
2004	789	16	0.328	23	0.458	3
2005	703	20	0.324	20	0.440	6
2006	716	28	0.319	29	0.422	22
2007	752	18	0.333	17	0.422	15
2008 (38 G)	223	1	0.375	1	0.441	4
Projected Runs	951
2007 Yankees	968
2004 Red Sox	949
2003 Red Sox*	961
* Set Record for highest slugging average in baseball history

 

As the Cubs lead the NL in on-base percentage (.375) and runs scored (223), cause-effect mind you, they are suddenly piling up the wins (23). Their plate appearances are becoming a sight for joyful eyes, seeing pitchers work and work, and well, throw bad pitches that become either hits or all-access passes to the base-paths.

Opposing teams are being fukudomed to death by the pitch counts. Nearly every game, I see Mr. Fukudome run a count to 3-2, foul off 2 or 3 balls, and either walk or make decent contact. (He’s 3rd in the NL in pitches per at-bat -4.33) He’s not hitting ropes around the park, but Fukudome is leading the Cubs away from the hack-if-you’re-lonely-and-want-to-sit-down at-bats the 2002-2007 Cubbies took. (Teammates Reed Johnson, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Mark DeRosa and Geovany Soto are all in the top 40 in this particular statistic.)

The mantra then was to hit a dinger with no one on base. It looked cool – if you liked the long ball, and that’s all – but it didn’t garner much in the way of wins. No patience, grasshopper. No taking the pebble, or the baseball, from the master’s hand. No walking on rice paper to achieve balance of purpose, or achieving spiritual unity with the 95-MPH fastball. No Kung Fu that worked.

Aside from the Fukudome effect, the catching of Don Giovanni Soto, with his slugging and backstop play, has been a well received gift after the struggles to get both hitting and fielding skills at the catcher’s spot. The Cubs have two rookies doing well from the start. (Fukudome is not really a rook; Kosuke spent more time in Japanese baseball than Barack Obama has in major U.S. politics. But both have had enormous effects on their respective professions.)

Now, the patience of the hitting has to translate to the operation of the pitching staff, aside from Big Z, The Dump Truck and Carlos ‘Captain’ Marmol. As I see it, nearly a quarter done with the season, the Cubs are 1 starter short of being a team to be reckoned with in October. They can survive on Carlos Zambrano’s days, maybe get by with Dempster, but Lilly has to sharpen or they need to acquire a solid #2 or be destined to bow out. (I am speculating on the World Series.)

No trade prospects – at least ones I would mention publicly, and know all the particulars – come to mind, yet. The fact that most divisions are still very competitive, and not runaways, means that will have to check back in late June, and see if the optimism expressed is an exclusive right of the Chicago Cubs, and not duly prohibited for rebroadcast, redistribution or dissemination to the rabid faithful. By then, some team of low ability, might be looking to deal a starter of worth. Maybe not.

Patience, grasshopper.

Patience, Cub fans. (100 years!!!)